Philosophy 12
Logic and Decision Making
Winter 2005, Tues. Thurs.:11:00-12:20

Professor: William Bechtel
Office: HSS 8076
Telephone: 822-4461
Office Hours: Wednesday, 2:00-4:00 and by appointment

Sections TA Office Contact Office hours
A01 Tuesday, 8 am Adam Streed HSS 7055 Wednesday, 3:00-5:00
A02 Thursday, 8 am Adam Streed HSS 7055 Wednesday, 3:00-5:00
A03 Wednesday, 3 pm Erick Ramirez HSS 8089 Wednesday, 12:30-2:30
A04 Wednesday, 4 pm Erick Ramirez HSS 8089 Wednesday, 12:30-2:30

1. Course Description

Reasoning and decision making are two of the most important activity humans engage in. But we don’t always do so is the best manner. When we don’t, the consequences can range from minor inconvenience to catastrophic loss. One of the contexts in which humans have best developed their capacities to good reasoning and decision making is scientific inquiry. Hence, that is where we will turn for guidance. Some of the questions we will address are: (1) What makes for a good piece of reasoning in science? (2) Can you ever be absolutely certain of the truth or falsity of a scientific hypothesis? (3) How objective is observation and how can humans avoid making mistakes in perception? (4) What might we learn by systematic observation? (5) When can we learn from discovering correlations and how can we avoid illusory correlations? (6) What does it take to establish a causal relationship? (7) What are mechanisms and how do scientists discover them?

This course will emphasize active engagement in the kinds of reasoning and decision making which scientists us in testing hypotheses, especially through on-line exercises and demonstrations. The goals of the course are for students to understand the logical and statistical principles by which scientific claims are created and evaluated and to develop a critical appreciation for the methods by which knowledge is acquired in science. You should leave this course with a better ability to distinguish good from poor reasoning and decision making.

2. Course Materials

All course materials are on the course website at Login directions and initial login codes are included in the course reader, available at the UCSD bookstore. The modules found on the website include text, animation, and interactive exercises, of which only the text is included in the reader. Some modules have questions to answer at the end. All activity on the site is recorded and logged, including answers to question sets attached to the modules. Completion of the on-line exercises is a requirement of the course.

3. Course Requirements

For each module, students are expected to complete the module and any questions attached to it, before attending classes. Attendance in class and sections is required. Sections will have regular quizzes and pop-quizzes may occasionally be given in lecture. Final grades will be based 30% on the mid-term, 35% on the final exam, 20% on two-short (1- 2 pages) written assignments, 10% for participation and activities (including quizzes) in lecture and sections, and 5% for timely completion of the web-based exercises and questions.

4. Email List

There are email distribution lists for this course, one for each section. It is required that you subscribe to the list for your discussions section. Do it IMMEDIATELY. You can always unsubscribe later if you drop the course or change sections. The purpose of the list is to allow the TAs and me to distribute information regarding due dates for assignments, changes of schedule, etc. Some of this information is crucial, and some of it may be distributed early on. To subscribe, you simply need to send an email message to the address corresponding to your section
Section A01 –
Section A02 –
Section A03 –
Section A04 –
After you send the subscribe request, you will receive a reply from sec0* (where * is the number of your section) that will ask you to confirm your request. Follow the directions in this message to confirm you subscription. If you later want to remove yourself from this list, send email to sec0*

Only the TAs and I have authorization to send mail to this list. There should be no spam. If you receive mail from this list that is not from one of us, be assured that I will as well and will take measures to block further abuse. (The welcome message you receive suggests that you can send email to the list. Sorry, but you cannot.)

5. Schedule of Classes and Web Assignments

Note: This schedule of reading assignments is tentative and subject to revision. Items in italics are modules on the course website. You should complete these, including any attached questions, before the assigned class (although subsequent review is certainly encouraged).

Click here for access to the lecture notes

January 4: Introduction: The Inquiry Website and Exemplary Scientific Reasoning
January 6: Elements of science: Introduction to Scientific Reasoning, Statements: the atoms of reasoning; Justification and argument

January 11: Valid arguments: Some basic valid argument forms
January 13: Confirmation, falsification, and fallibility: Evidential relations; The fallible character of human knowledge

January 18: Observation and categories: Observation and learning to see
January 20: Categorizing phenomena: Categories and taxonomy

January 25: Observational research: Observational research
January 27: Distributions and samples: Variables and measurement

February 1: Midterm Exam
February 3: Predicting relationships between variables: Predicting relations between variables

February 8: Predicting from correlations: When variables are correlated
February 10: Differences between means: When variables are not correlated; When groups differ

February 15: Correlation and causation: Correlational studies as tests of causal claims; Correlational vs. experimental research
February 17: Causal explanation: Causal explanation
First 1-2 page written assignment due

February 22: Reasoning about and graphing causes: Reasoning about causation; Causal reasoning with directed graphs
February 24: Causality and experiments: Testing causal claims experimentally

March 1: Causation when experiments are not possible: When randomized experiments are not possible
March 3: Mechanism and mechanistic explanation: Entities and activities organized to produce a phenomenon
Second 1-2 page written assignment due

March 8: Organization and levels of organization: Levels of organization within mechanisms; Describing and portraying mechanisms
March 10: Discovering and modeling mechanisms: Experimenting on mechanisms; Denying phenomena when mechanisms cannot be conceived; Modeling strategies

Final Exam: Monday, March 14, 11:30-2:30